A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or campaigners want to engage with the basics. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two essays that strive for impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they support unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has has valuable insights to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
